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The Trump discontinuity - His new Afghan strategy could be a game-changer for South Asia. There is an opportunity for India

特朗普的转折——他的新阿富汗战略可能会改变南亚规则,对印度来说是机遇



Written by C. Raja Mohan | Published: August 24, 2017 12:00 am

作者:拉贾·莫汉 | 发表:2017年8月24日 12:00

【卡内基印度中心主任,印度外交政策顶尖分析师,南亚安全、亚洲大国关系和军备控制问题专家,《印度快报》外交专栏作家,新加坡国立大学南亚研究所的客座教授,印度国家安全顾问委员会成员。】

Although India has been quick to welcome President Donald Trump's new assertive policy in Afghanistan, sceptics in Delhi would wonder if Washington has the political will to carry through the promised pressure on Pakistan to stop hosting terror sanctuaries on its soil. For Delhi, the question is not whether Trump's Afghanistan strategy is a glass half-full or half-empty. It is about seizing the opportunity opened up by his new policy to raise India's profile in Afghanistan.

尽管印度迅速欢迎了特朗普总统在阿富汗采取的高度自信的新政策,但德里的怀疑人士会怀疑,华盛顿是否有政治意愿贯彻承诺,向巴基斯坦施压要求其停止在其领土庇护恐怖活动。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]对于德里来说,问题不在于特朗普的阿富汗战略是好是坏,而是抓住他的新政策带来的机遇,提升印度在阿富汗的形象。

Within hours of his speech earlier this week outlining a new American approach to Afghanistan, Delhi welcomed “President Trump's determination to enhance efforts to overcome the challenges facing Afghanistan and confronting issues of safe havens and other forms of cross-border support enjoyed by terrorists. ” In his speech Trump had declared that the US “can no longer be silent about Pakistan's safe havens for terrorist organisations, the Taliban and other groups that pose a threat to the region and beyond. ” He demanded that Pakistan's support to cross-border terror “will have to change” and “change immediately”.

在他本周早些时候阐述美国在阿富汗的新做法的演讲之后的几小时内,德里欢迎了“特朗普总统决心加强努力克服阿富汗面临的挑战,对抗安全庇护问题和其他形式的恐怖分子所钟爱的跨境支持的问题。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]”特朗普在他的讲话中宣称美国“不能再对巴基斯坦为恐怖组织、塔利班和其他威胁该地区内外的组织提供安全庇护保持沉默。”他要求巴基斯坦“必须改变”及“立即改变”对跨境恐怖活动的支持。

On Trump's affirmation that India ought to do more, Delhi pointed to India's significant past efforts to promote economic reconstruction in Afghanistan. It added that India “will continue these efforts, including in partnership with other countries”.

关于特朗普断言印度应该做更多事情,德里指明印度过去曾为促进阿富汗经济重建做出巨大努力。它补充道,印度“将继续这些努力,包括与其他国家的合作”。

India's positive response does not mean that Delhi is unaware of the enduring impulses in Washington to forgive Rawalpindi's transgressions in Afghanistan. Whatever the US president might say, there are large sections of the US deep state that caution against a radical shift in US policy towards Pakistan. Few countries have gotten away so long with what Trump has accused Pakistan of doing: Pakistan shelters “the same organisations that try every single day to kill our people. We have been paying Pakistan billions and billions of dollars at the same time they are housing the very terrorists we are fighting.”

印度的积极回应并不意味着德里不知道华盛顿对原谅拉瓦尔品第(巴基斯坦旁遮普省城市)在阿富汗犯罪的持续容忍。无论美国总统说什么,美国有大部分地区深入表达了对美国对巴基斯坦政策的根本性转变的谨慎态度。少数国家逃避了好长时间(的责任),一如特朗普指责巴基斯坦所做的:巴基斯坦庇护“每天都在试图杀害我们人民的组织。我们已经支付了巴基斯坦数十亿美元,与此同时他们在窝藏那些我们正在战斗的恐怖分子。”

If the US has tolerated this for the last 17 years, Delhi has good reason to be cautious in its assessment of what the Trump Administration can compel the Pakistan Army to do today. In any case, what we heard is a mere speech. Turning the words of that speech into actions of the ground will not be easy. Delhi has no reason to hold its breath. While scepticism is healthy, cynicism that ignores the changes taking place in the US regional policy is not. After all, Trump has said something about Pakistan in public that his predecessors were not willing to. If the previous administration acquiesced in Pakistan's double dealing on terror, Trump has threatened Rawalpindi with consequences if it does not change its behaviour.

如果美国在过去的17年里容忍了这一点,德里有充分理由对今天的特朗普政府能迫使巴基斯坦军队做什么保持谨慎评估。无论如何,我们所听到的只是一场演讲。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]将这次演讲的措辞转变为实际行动并不容易。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]德里没有理由屏住呼吸。怀疑主义是有益的,但忽视美国地区政策正在发生的变化的冷嘲热讽则不是。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]毕竟,特朗普公开对巴基斯坦说了一些他的前任不愿意说的话。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]如果前一届政府默许了巴基斯坦对恐怖主义的双重行为,那么,特朗普威胁了拉瓦尔品第,假如不改变其行为就会产生后果。

It is equally important for Delhi to note the shift in Washington's thinking on the Indian role in Afghanistan. The Bush Administration's strategic warmth towards India was expansive. It wanted to help accelerate India's rise and invested enormous political capital in getting the world to lift a four decades-old nuclear blockade against Delhi. Yet when it came to Pakistan and Afghanistan, the Bush Administration drew a red line for India. It cautioned Delhi against too large a role in Afghanistan. The Obama Administration began with the proposition that the answer to Afghanistan might lie in promoting a resolution of Pakistan's Kashmir dispute with India. It required intensive diplomacy from India to fend off these initiatives.

同样重要的是,德里注意到华盛顿对印度在阿富汗作用的看法发生了转变。布什政府对印度的战略热情是膨胀的。它想要帮助加速印度的崛起,并投入巨大的政治资本让世界解除对德里长达四十年的核封锁。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]然而,当涉及到巴基斯坦和阿富汗时,布什政府为印度画了一条红线。它提醒德里不要在阿富汗扮演太大的角色。奥巴马政府开始时提出,阿富汗问题的答案可能在于推动解决巴基斯坦和印度的克什米尔争端。这需要印度的密集外交来抵挡这些倡议。

Delhi must necessarily keep its eyes open for a return of these familiar themes in the US approach to Pakistan. At the same time, India must also appreciate the most important change in US Afghan policy. Until recently, Washington believed that India's rivalry with Pakistan is part of the problem in Afghanistan. Today Trump might be betting that by invoking a larger Indian role in Afghanistan, he might add to the pressures on Pakistan to cooperate with the US.

在美国对待巴基斯坦的方式上,德里必须对这些熟悉的话题的回归保持警惕。万赢棋牌游戏_[官网入口]与此同时,印度也必须意识到美国在阿富汗政策上最重要的变化。直到最近,华盛顿还认为印度与巴基斯坦的敌对是阿富汗问题的一部分。今天,特朗普可能在赌,通过在阿富汗调用一个更大的印度角色,他可以增加巴基斯坦的压力令其与美国合作。

Despite all the talk of playing the China card against the US, Pakistan is acutely conscious of the dangers of being treated as a rogue state by the West. Its thundering silence in response to the Trump speech, suggests that Rawalpindi has chosen to avoid, for now, a public argument with Washington.

尽管所有人都在谈论对美国打中国牌,但巴基斯坦尖锐地意识到被西方当作流氓国家对待的危险。它对特朗普言论的雷鸣般的沉默,表明了现阶段拉瓦尔品第已经选择避免与华盛顿公开争论。

The Pakistan Army will try and find ways to limit Trump's fire and fury. It will not be easy, however, for Pakistan to abandon its investments in cross-border terror. It would try and finesse the issue of terror sanctuaries. Rawalpindi will offer some cooperation in countering terror and make new promises to bring the Taliban to the table. It will urge US pressure on India to start talks on Kashmir.

巴基斯坦军队会设法压下特朗普的怒火。然而,要巴基斯坦放弃对跨境恐怖主义的支持并不容易。它会试着用计策处理恐怖分子的庇护问题。拉瓦尔品第将提供一些反恐方面的合作,并做出新的承诺,把塔利班带到谈判桌。它会敦促美国施压印度,要求开始就克什米尔问题展开会谈。

While India must prepare for the possibility of the US slipping back to its old ways on Pakistan, Delhi's current emphasis must be on taking advantage of the Trump discontinuity in the American policy towards the Subcontinent. A positive Indian approach would involve three elements — economic, security and diplomatic.

印度必须为美国可能回到之前对待巴基斯坦的老路而做好准备,但德里目前的重点必须是利用好特朗普对次大陆政策上的转折。一个积极的印度方法涉及三个要素——经济、安全和外交。

For one, India must ramp up its economic diplomacy in Afghanistan to bring immediate benefits to Kabul amidst the deteriorating conditions in the country. Second, Delhi must step up security cooperation with Afghanistan, especially in the training of its police and armed forces and intelligence sharing. Third, on the diplomatic front, India must counter the emerging argument that Trump's new approach will intensify the “Indo-Pak rivalry” in Afghanistan and the old one that Kashmir holds the key to peace in Afghanistan.

第一,印度必须加强其在阿富汗的经济外交,在该国日益恶化的环境中给喀布尔带来直接好处。第二,德里必须与阿富汗加强安全合作,特别是训练警察和武装部队及共享情报。第三,在外交方面,印度必须反驳正在出现的观点——特朗普的新方法将在阿富汗加剧“印巴敌对”。而旧方法是,克什米尔掌握着阿富汗和平的关键。

Delhi must remind the world of India's commitment to regional cooperation with Afghanistan and Pakistan, in an atmosphere free of terrorism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi had articulated this vision in an address to the Afghan parliament on December 25, 2015. Shortly after declaring that Pakistan can be a bridge between India and Afghanistan, the PM had traveled to Lahore on very short notice to wish Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on his birthday. Pakistan's army responded by launching a terror attack in Pathankot a few days later.

德里必须提醒世界,印度致力于,在一个没有恐怖主义的氛围中,与阿富汗和巴基斯坦进行区域合作。2015年12月25日,总理纳伦德拉·莫迪在向阿富汗议会发表演讲时阐明了这个愿景。在声明巴基斯坦可以成为印度和阿富汗之间的桥梁后不久,总理就急忙前往拉合尔,祝贺总理纳瓦兹·谢里夫生日。几天后,巴基斯坦军队在(印度空军基地)Pathankot发动恐怖袭击作为回应。

Trump's new Afghan strategy could be a potential game-changer for South Asia or a brief exception to the familiar pattern of US-Pak relations. While recognising the potential shadow between Trump's words and deeds, Delhi must bet on its own activism that can influence future outcomes in Afghanistan.

特朗普的新阿富汗战略可能是南亚潜在的规则改变者,或者是我们熟悉的美国-巴基斯坦关系的短暂例外。在认清特朗普言行之间的潜在阴影的同时,德里必须押注于自己的行动,这可能会影响未来在阿富汗的结果。

Pakistan Has To Cooperate, Else Action Will Be Taken As Spoken By Donald Trump- Afghan Envoy

巴基斯坦必须合作,否则将会采取行动,正如特朗普的阿富汗特使所说。