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Why India'seconomy isn't imploding like every other emerging market 译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://zhxdedu.com
【链接】http://qz.com/358414/why-indias- ...er-emerging-market/
On Feb. 17, anarticle appeared in The New York Times, "As Rivals Falter, India's Economy isSurging Ahead," by Keith Bradsher, which, among other things, says, "The stockmarket and rupee are surging. Multinational companies are looking to expandtheir Indian operations or start new ones. The growth in India's economy, longa laggard, just matched China's in recent months…India is riding high on theearly success of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a raft of newbusiness-friendly policies instituted in his first eight months."
全球彩票_[官网首页]在二月十七号,《纽约时报》上刊登一篇文章"对手动摇、印度的经济领先",作者是Keith Bradsher。文章表示"股票和卢比正在飙升。跨国公司正在想方设法扩大其在印度的业务,或者新建公司。印度的经济增长长期落后,仅与中国最近几个月的相当…印度正意气风发于印度首相执政后八个月中制定的一系列招商引资政策。"
This poses threequestions. First, is it true that India is riding high while its rivals arefaltering, or is it just that India is feeling the impact of some internationalproblems with a lag, so that the troubles that its rivals are suffering arestill in the future for India? Second, if India is in an advantageoussituation, why is it? Third, what should be done to protect the Indianadvantage?
Is India ridinghigh?
There are brightsigns in the Indian economy. Just take a look at the next graph, which showsthe stock markets of all the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China andSouth Africa). Brazil and Russia are in a steep dive and South Africa is juststable while India and China are booming. This suggests the existence of anappetite for investing in India and China while investors are taking away theirmoney from Brazil and Russia. In the case of India, such appetite, initiallysatisfied with stock exchange ventures, could later be turned into brick andmortar investment.
The Indian appealto investors might be stronger than China's. Even if the shares are going up inthe latter, many enterprises are divesting there and moving to other places,mainly Latin America and Singapore. The main reason for leaving is that Chinesewages have increased beyond what the productivity of the Chinese workers wouldwarrant. Most of these companies are not yet coming to India. They might do it,though. As a token, the chairman of General Motors visited India recently toinspect the company's preparations to export cars to Chile. 译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://zhxdedu.com
印度比中国可能更具有吸引力。全球彩票_[官网首页]即使后者的股票市值正在攀升,但是很多企业正在离开中国,转向其他地方,大部分转到拉丁美洲和新加坡。全球彩票_[官网首页]这些企业离开的重要原因是中国的工资增长超过了中国工人预期的生产率。这些公司大部分都没到过印度。但是,它们可能会。通用公司主席最近访问印度时视察向智利出口汽车的公司的准备工作,从这可以看得出来。 Another importantsign is contained in the next graph: Out of the five BRICS, just two—China andIndia—increased their exports in the last year. Those of Russia, Brazil andSouth Africa have been declining for longer than that.
We do not havemonthly indicators of production for these countries and the data for 2014 isnot yet available in comparable form for all of them. However, we have monthlydata for exports up to the end of 2014, which is useful because there is apositive correlation between exports and production growth. The next graphshows this correlation in a sample of 135 countries (all the countries in theworld for which there was information available). Using this correlation, wecan assume that the rates of growth of GDP in Brazil, Russia and South Africaare going down because their exports are falling substantially, while those ofIndia and China are going up because exports are increasing in the twocountries.
我们没有这些国家的产品月指标,2014年的数据不足以将它们逐一比较,然而我们有截止至2014年的出口产品的月度数据,这是非常有用的 ,因为出口和生产是成正相关的。全球彩票_[官网首页]下面的图表就表明了它们的正相关性,来自135个国家的样本数据(世界上所有国家的这些数据都是可以获得的)。全球彩票_[官网首页]通过他们的正相关性,我们可以认为巴西,俄罗斯和南非的GDP是下降的,因为它们的出口大幅度下降,然而印度和中国的GDP在上升,因为这两个国家的出口在增长。
Thus, we canexpect China and India to have an advantage over the other BRICS countries notjust in terms of exports but also in terms of general economic growth.
因此,我们可以认为中国和印度有相对于其他金砖国家的优势,不仅在出口方面,同样在整体的经济增长方面。 But, why shouldthe exports and production of China and India keep on growing while those ofthe other three BRICS are going down?
Why is Indiastrong?
The Indiangovernment is in a good course to increase the country's investment and growthin a sustainable way. Its plans include, among other things, expandinginfrastructure to reduce business costs; creating a true national market byreplacing state taxes with a national tax; and reducing the red tape tofacilitate doing business. Prime minister Modi is calling universities,institutions and industry to cooperate in the generation of higher value addedin the country's production.
These are theright things to do. They, however, are still on the drawing board and, onceapplied, they will produce full results only in the long term. Of course, justthe fact that the government is investing its prestige and its resources onthese measures will attract new investments even in the short run. However,apart from this psychological impact, these measures could not possibly beresponsible for the current strength of the Indian economy.
Rajan magic
The work ofRaghuram Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has been morerelevant for the construction of such strength. In the crucial months after hetook charge of the institution in September 2013, he stabilised the rupee,which had been spinning down, reduced the volatility of the stock markets andreversed the capital outflows that had been ravaging the economy before he wasappointed.
印度储备银行行长, 拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的工作,更多地在力量建设上。在他2013年九月执掌印度储备银行后的关键几个月,他稳定了卢比,其一直在下滑,减少了股票市场的波动,扭转了资本外流局面,这一直在破坏经济,在他上任前。
Additionally, hehas strengthened the economy against potential external shocks. In this vein,he has been building up the country's reserves to prepare for a possibleliquidity squeeze in the international markets. Also, he has been pressuringbanks to replace the management of financially weak debtor companies, with twoobjectives in mind: To strengthen the financial situation of the country and toredirect to good uses the resources now being diverted to refinance the lossmakers.
Through thesemeasures, Rajan has rebuilt the investors' confidence. His work is evident inthe stability of India and the positive outlook investors have for the country.
The question iswhether this is enough to secure a sustainable flow of investments that wouldkeep exports and GDP growing in the long run while the rest of the emergingmarkets are going down.
To answer thisquestion we must ascertain why Brazil or Russia are going down. It must besomething that affects them but not India and China.
The ficklecommodity prices
Look at the nexttwo graphs. The one on top shows how the prices of commodities have fallen inthe last two years and particularly since mid-2014. The second shows the degreeof dependence of the exports of BRICS on commodities. Russia, Brazil and SouthAfrica depend on commodities quite heavily while those of China and India donot. The countries that depend more on commodities are the ones that aresuffering the most from the current collapse of their prices.
看下面这两个图表。最高的那条曲线说明在过去的两年里尤其在2014年中期大宗商品在下降。中间那条曲线说明了金砖国家大宗商品出口的可靠度。俄罗斯,巴西和南非过度地依赖大宗商品(的出口),然而中国和印度却没有这样。过度依赖大宗商品(出口)的国家最容易遭受到当前价格暴跌的冲击。 The next graphshows how the countries with a higher share of commodities in their exportstended to grow faster during the boom of commodities (roughly 2003-2013).Having a relatively low participation of commodities in its exports, Indiabenefited less than many other countries of this boom. Logically, now that theprices are falling, India will suffer less than those other countries.
下面的图表说明,有着较高大宗商品份额的国家在商品繁荣时期如何快速增长(粗略统计:2003-2013)。有着相对较低的商品出口份额,印度从商品繁荣时期获益较少。按照逻辑,现在商品价格在下降,印度相对于其他国家来讲受到的影响较小。 The followingtable shows my estimate of the percent of GDP growth that is due to changes incommodity prices, based on 1960-2013 data (1997-2013 for Russia):
Thus, one of thegreat advantages of India is that falling commodity prices will have a smallerimpact than on Russia, Brazil and South Africa. But there is another advantage.The effect of the reduction of commodity prices is not limited to exports. Ithas an impact on imports and production costs as well.
On this otherside, the impact of the reduction in the price of one particular commodity,oil, has been extremely positive for India. Before its fall, the annual oilbill represented a $100 billion cost for the economy, about 5% of the country'sGDP. Now this bill has been reduced byhalf. Rajan told The New York Times (same source cited above) that the fall inoil prices represented a $50 billion gift for the economy.
另一方面,石油这个特殊商品的价格下跌的影响,对印度来说是相当积极的。在油价下跌前,每年都要花费1000亿美元,占到该国GDP的5%。现在这项花费减少了一半,Rajan 告诉《纽约时报》记者(上面引用的来源相同),油价的下跌,为国家经济减少了500亿美元的花费。
In summary,investors are looking optimistically at India, and for good reasons. Expressedin dollars, stocks in China and India are increasing in value while in mostother BRICS are falling fast. China and India's exports and production havekept on increasing while those of the other BRICS are going down as a result ofthe catastrophic fall in commodity prices. And, as is well known, China is expected to slow down because itssalaries have become too high. India seems to be singled out for its moment ofrapid development.
An uncertain world
However, the factthat the effect of falling commodity prices on its exports and production costsis beneficial relative to the other BRICS does not mean that India can fly highfor a long period while these are doing badly. The fall in commodity pricescould be a symptom of a larger malady that could affect bothcommodity-dependent as well as other countries. We can ascertain this bycomparing commodity price movements with the growth rates of the entire world'sGDP, including commodity exporters and importers.
We do that in thenext two graphs. The first compares the annual changes of the world's total GDPwith the changes in commodity prices. They look very close. The second oneshows the correlation between the annual changes in those two variables. Thedegree of correlation is 28%.

The ups and downsof the commodity prices could not be the explanation for the ups and downs ofworld production. At the world level, the negative shock that a fall in thoseprices has on commodity net exporters is compensated by the positive impact ithas on the net commodity importers—and the other way around when the prices goup.
The causality islikely to run in the other direction: High rates of the world's GDP areassociated with higher industrial production, which in turn results in higherdemands for commodities and, therefore, in the prevalence of higher commodityprices. Thus, the changes in the prices of commodities may be a leadingindicator of the state of the world's economy. If this were true, their fallwould be announcing an approaching decline in worldwide economic activity.
Thus, there is asubstantial probability that the world's economy is approaching a slowdown.India's current buoyancy may be just a temporary state, not a permanentplatform for growth. The fact that it depends less than other BRICS oncommodity exports would be just delaying the impact of the worldwide slowdownrather than preventing it.
What should bedone?
As I said before,the government is doing the right things. And it is doing so independently ofwhether the world economy will grow or slow down in the next several months.
If the governmentis able to convince investors that it will persevere with the policies it hasannounced India may turn out to be the world's star performer in the nextseveral decades. If there is a worldwide slowdown, it may avoid its worstconsequences in the immediate future, and then become the star performer in themedium term.
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