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Why India'seconomy isn't imploding like every other emerging market 译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://zhxdedu.com
为什么印度的经济并不会像其他新兴国家一样崩溃
【日期】2015年3月16日
【链接】http://qz.com/358414/why-indias- ...er-emerging-market/
On Feb. 17, anarticle appeared in The New York Times, "As Rivals Falter, India's Economy isSurging Ahead," by Keith Bradsher, which, among other things, says, "The stockmarket and rupee are surging. Multinational companies are looking to expandtheir Indian operations or start new ones. The growth in India's economy, longa laggard, just matched China's in recent months…India is riding high on theearly success of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and a raft of newbusiness-friendly policies instituted in his first eight months."
全球彩票_[官网首页]在二月十七号,《纽约时报》上刊登一篇文章"对手动摇、印度的经济领先",作者是Keith Bradsher。文章表示"股票和卢比正在飙升。跨国公司正在想方设法扩大其在印度的业务,或者新建公司。印度的经济增长长期落后,仅与中国最近几个月的相当…印度正意气风发于印度首相执政后八个月中制定的一系列招商引资政策。"
This poses threequestions. First, is it true that India is riding high while its rivals arefaltering, or is it just that India is feeling the impact of some internationalproblems with a lag, so that the troubles that its rivals are suffering arestill in the future for India? Second, if India is in an advantageoussituation, why is it? Third, what should be done to protect the Indianadvantage?
这带来了三个问题。首先,当其对手正在落后时,印度得意洋洋这是肯定的。或者仅仅是印度感受到国际一些问题和滞后的影响,其后会重蹈其对手现在所面临的烦恼的覆辙吗?其次,加入印度正处在一个有利的形势,为什么会这样呢?再次,应该如何保持印度现有的优势?
Is India ridinghigh?
印度正春风得意吗?
There are brightsigns in the Indian economy. Just take a look at the next graph, which showsthe stock markets of all the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China andSouth Africa). Brazil and Russia are in a steep dive and South Africa is juststable while India and China are booming. This suggests the existence of anappetite for investing in India and China while investors are taking away theirmoney from Brazil and Russia. In the case of India, such appetite, initiallysatisfied with stock exchange ventures, could later be turned into brick andmortar investment.
全球彩票_[官网首页]印度的经济有很明显的(增长迹象),仅用看下面的图表便可得知,其显示了金砖国家(巴西,俄罗斯,印度,中国和南非)的股票市值,巴西和俄罗斯都在急剧下降和南非仅是稳定的,而印度和中国正蓬勃发展。这就说明,当投资者从巴西和俄罗斯撤资时,存在往印度和中国投资的倾向。就印度来说,这样的倾向,起初只是满足于证券交易所公司,但是随后便转向传统产业。
The Indian appealto investors might be stronger than China's. Even if the shares are going up inthe latter, many enterprises are divesting there and moving to other places,mainly Latin America and Singapore. The main reason for leaving is that Chinesewages have increased beyond what the productivity of the Chinese workers wouldwarrant. Most of these companies are not yet coming to India. They might do it,though. As a token, the chairman of General Motors visited India recently toinspect the company's preparations to export cars to Chile. 译文来源:龙腾网 HTTP://zhxdedu.com
印度比中国可能更具有吸引力。全球彩票_[官网首页]即使后者的股票市值正在攀升,但是很多企业正在离开中国,转向其他地方,大部分转到拉丁美洲和新加坡。全球彩票_[官网首页]这些企业离开的重要原因是中国的工资增长超过了中国工人预期的生产率。这些公司大部分都没到过印度。但是,它们可能会。通用公司主席最近访问印度时视察向智利出口汽车的公司的准备工作,从这可以看得出来。 Another importantsign is contained in the next graph: Out of the five BRICS, just two—China andIndia—increased their exports in the last year. Those of Russia, Brazil andSouth Africa have been declining for longer than that.
另一个重要的迹象从下面的图表中可以看得出来:五个金砖国家中只有中国和印度去年的出口额在增长,而俄罗斯,巴西和南非持续下跌。
We do not havemonthly indicators of production for these countries and the data for 2014 isnot yet available in comparable form for all of them. However, we have monthlydata for exports up to the end of 2014, which is useful because there is apositive correlation between exports and production growth. The next graphshows this correlation in a sample of 135 countries (all the countries in theworld for which there was information available). Using this correlation, wecan assume that the rates of growth of GDP in Brazil, Russia and South Africaare going down because their exports are falling substantially, while those ofIndia and China are going up because exports are increasing in the twocountries.
我们没有这些国家的产品月指标,2014年的数据不足以将它们逐一比较,然而我们有截止至2014年的出口产品的月度数据,这是非常有用的 ,因为出口和生产是成正相关的。全球彩票_[官网首页]下面的图表就表明了它们的正相关性,来自135个国家的样本数据(世界上所有国家的这些数据都是可以获得的)。全球彩票_[官网首页]通过他们的正相关性,我们可以认为巴西,俄罗斯和南非的GDP是下降的,因为它们的出口大幅度下降,然而印度和中国的GDP在上升,因为这两个国家的出口在增长。
Thus, we canexpect China and India to have an advantage over the other BRICS countries notjust in terms of exports but also in terms of general economic growth.
因此,我们可以认为中国和印度有相对于其他金砖国家的优势,不仅在出口方面,同样在整体的经济增长方面。 But, why shouldthe exports and production of China and India keep on growing while those ofthe other three BRICS are going down?
但是为什么中国和印度的出口和生产持续增长而其它金砖国家在下降呢?
Why is Indiastrong?
为什么印度在走强?
The Indiangovernment is in a good course to increase the country's investment and growthin a sustainable way. Its plans include, among other things, expandinginfrastructure to reduce business costs; creating a true national market byreplacing state taxes with a national tax; and reducing the red tape tofacilitate doing business. Prime minister Modi is calling universities,institutions and industry to cooperate in the generation of higher value addedin the country's production.
全球彩票_[官网首页]印度正以一个良好的发展路线来增加该国的投资和可持续增长。除了其他之外,其计划包括,扩大基础设施建设以减少商业成本;通过将国税替代州税来创建一个真正的国家市场;减少繁文缛节以开展业务。全球彩票_[官网首页]总理莫迪号召大学,研究机构和企业在生产高附加值的产品上进行合作。
These are theright things to do. They, however, are still on the drawing board and, onceapplied, they will produce full results only in the long term. Of course, justthe fact that the government is investing its prestige and its resources onthese measures will attract new investments even in the short run. However,apart from this psychological impact, these measures could not possibly beresponsible for the current strength of the Indian economy.
这是一件好事,值得去做。然而,他们还只是在构想中,一旦实施,会在长时期后才取得圆满的结果。全球彩票_[官网首页]当然,印度政府正在投资于它的威望,这些新的措施将会在短时期内吸引新的投资,然而,除了心里影响之外,这些措施可能不会给印度当前的经济实力带来影响。
Rajan magic
Rajan的魔力
The work ofRaghuram Rajan, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, has been morerelevant for the construction of such strength. In the crucial months after hetook charge of the institution in September 2013, he stabilised the rupee,which had been spinning down, reduced the volatility of the stock markets andreversed the capital outflows that had been ravaging the economy before he wasappointed.
印度储备银行行长, 拉詹(Raghuram Rajan)的工作,更多地在力量建设上。在他2013年九月执掌印度储备银行后的关键几个月,他稳定了卢比,其一直在下滑,减少了股票市场的波动,扭转了资本外流局面,这一直在破坏经济,在他上任前。
Additionally, hehas strengthened the economy against potential external shocks. In this vein,he has been building up the country's reserves to prepare for a possibleliquidity squeeze in the international markets. Also, he has been pressuringbanks to replace the management of financially weak debtor companies, with twoobjectives in mind: To strengthen the financial situation of the country and toredirect to good uses the resources now being diverted to refinance the lossmakers.
此外,他已经增强了经济应对潜在的外部冲击的能力。在这方面,他正在创建国家的储备来应对国际市场可能的流动性紧缩。同样,他还向银行施压,以取代管理不佳的债务人公司。有两个目标:改善国家的经济形势,重新配置现有的资源,向生产亏损的制造商提供资金帮助。
Through thesemeasures, Rajan has rebuilt the investors' confidence. His work is evident inthe stability of India and the positive outlook investors have for the country.
通过这些措施,Rajan重建了投资者的信心。他在稳定印度社会的工作是明显的,同时他还是这个国家乐观的投资者。
The question iswhether this is enough to secure a sustainable flow of investments that wouldkeep exports and GDP growing in the long run while the rest of the emergingmarkets are going down.
问题是这些措施在获得可持续的投资流上是否足够,这些投资会保持出口和GDP的增长的长期性,当其他新兴国家在下降时。
To answer thisquestion we must ascertain why Brazil or Russia are going down. It must besomething that affects them but not India and China.
为了回答这个问题,我们必须探知为什么巴西或者俄罗斯(GDP)在下降。这绝对是影响他们的问题,但不是影响中国和印度的问题。
The ficklecommodity prices
变幻无常的商品价格
Look at the nexttwo graphs. The one on top shows how the prices of commodities have fallen inthe last two years and particularly since mid-2014. The second shows the degreeof dependence of the exports of BRICS on commodities. Russia, Brazil and SouthAfrica depend on commodities quite heavily while those of China and India donot. The countries that depend more on commodities are the ones that aresuffering the most from the current collapse of their prices.
看下面这两个图表。最高的那条曲线说明在过去的两年里尤其在2014年中期大宗商品在下降。中间那条曲线说明了金砖国家大宗商品出口的可靠度。俄罗斯,巴西和南非过度地依赖大宗商品(的出口),然而中国和印度却没有这样。过度依赖大宗商品(出口)的国家最容易遭受到当前价格暴跌的冲击。 The next graphshows how the countries with a higher share of commodities in their exportstended to grow faster during the boom of commodities (roughly 2003-2013).Having a relatively low participation of commodities in its exports, Indiabenefited less than many other countries of this boom. Logically, now that theprices are falling, India will suffer less than those other countries.
下面的图表说明,有着较高大宗商品份额的国家在商品繁荣时期如何快速增长(粗略统计:2003-2013)。有着相对较低的商品出口份额,印度从商品繁荣时期获益较少。按照逻辑,现在商品价格在下降,印度相对于其他国家来讲受到的影响较小。 The followingtable shows my estimate of the percent of GDP growth that is due to changes incommodity prices, based on 1960-2013 data (1997-2013 for Russia):
下面的图表显示了我的估计:由于商品价格的波动使得GDP增长的百分比。基于1960-2013年的数据(1997-2013年为俄罗斯)
Thus, one of thegreat advantages of India is that falling commodity prices will have a smallerimpact than on Russia, Brazil and South Africa. But there is another advantage.The effect of the reduction of commodity prices is not limited to exports. Ithas an impact on imports and production costs as well.
因此,印度的一个最大的优势是,商品价格的下跌而受到的影响比俄罗斯,巴西和南非小。但是,还有其他的优势。商品价格的影响没有限制出口。它同时也了产品的进口成本。
On this otherside, the impact of the reduction in the price of one particular commodity,oil, has been extremely positive for India. Before its fall, the annual oilbill represented a $100 billion cost for the economy, about 5% of the country'sGDP. Now this bill has been reduced byhalf. Rajan told The New York Times (same source cited above) that the fall inoil prices represented a $50 billion gift for the economy.
另一方面,石油这个特殊商品的价格下跌的影响,对印度来说是相当积极的。在油价下跌前,每年都要花费1000亿美元,占到该国GDP的5%。现在这项花费减少了一半,Rajan 告诉《纽约时报》记者(上面引用的来源相同),油价的下跌,为国家经济减少了500亿美元的花费。
In summary,investors are looking optimistically at India, and for good reasons. Expressedin dollars, stocks in China and India are increasing in value while in mostother BRICS are falling fast. China and India's exports and production havekept on increasing while those of the other BRICS are going down as a result ofthe catastrophic fall in commodity prices. And, as is well known, China is expected to slow down because itssalaries have become too high. India seems to be singled out for its moment ofrapid development.
总的来说,投资者以乐观的心态看待印度当前形势,这是有理由的。以美元表示,中国和印度的股票价值在上升而其他金砖国家的股票价值骤降。中国和印度的产品持续增长而其他金砖国家在下降,结果在商品价格上是毁灭性的下降。我们都知道,中国期望其增长放缓,因为该国工资已经变得很高了。印度似乎并不是如此,而是期望其快速发展。
An uncertain world
一个未知的世界。
However, the factthat the effect of falling commodity prices on its exports and production costsis beneficial relative to the other BRICS does not mean that India can fly highfor a long period while these are doing badly. The fall in commodity pricescould be a symptom of a larger malady that could affect bothcommodity-dependent as well as other countries. We can ascertain this bycomparing commodity price movements with the growth rates of the entire world'sGDP, including commodity exporters and importers.
然而,商品价格下跌在出口和产品成本方面的影响是有利的,相对于其他金砖国家来说,但是并不意味着印度能够长时期的快速增长而其他国家则不然。大宗商品价格的下跌可能是更大弊病来前的征兆,可以影响到商品的依赖性,其他国家也是如此。
We do that in thenext two graphs. The first compares the annual changes of the world's total GDPwith the changes in commodity prices. They look very close. The second oneshows the correlation between the annual changes in those two variables. Thedegree of correlation is 28%.
我们可以从下面两图表看出。第一张图表比较了世界总的GDP的年度变化和商品价格的变化。它们看起来很接近。第二张图表显示了这两个变量的相关性。相关度为28%。



The ups and downsof the commodity prices could not be the explanation for the ups and downs ofworld production. At the world level, the negative shock that a fall in thoseprices has on commodity net exporters is compensated by the positive impact ithas on the net commodity importers—and the other way around when the prices goup.
大宗商品价格的起起落落不足以解释世界产品的起伏。就全球来说,大宗商品价格下跌给大宗商品净出口国的负面冲击,由大宗商品净进口国的积极影响来补偿。当价格上涨时,刚好反过来。
The causality islikely to run in the other direction: High rates of the world's GDP areassociated with higher industrial production, which in turn results in higherdemands for commodities and, therefore, in the prevalence of higher commodityprices. Thus, the changes in the prices of commodities may be a leadingindicator of the state of the world's economy. If this were true, their fallwould be announcing an approaching decline in worldwide economic activity.
这因果关系在其他方面可能也适用:世界GDP的高速率增长与较高的工业产品挂钩,其导致更高的商品需求,因此,商品的价格普遍较高。于是商品的这些变化成为了世界经济状态的晴雨表。如果这些属实,它们的下降意味着大范围的经济活动在下降。
Thus, there is asubstantial probability that the world's economy is approaching a slowdown.India's current buoyancy may be just a temporary state, not a permanentplatform for growth. The fact that it depends less than other BRICS oncommodity exports would be just delaying the impact of the worldwide slowdownrather than preventing it.
因此,很有可能世界经济正在朝着下滑的方向走。印度目前的增长态势可能只是暂时性的,而不是永久性的增长平台。事实是如此,比其他金砖国家对商品出口的依赖较少,只是延缓了大范围的下滑而不是阻止其下滑。
What should bedone?
应该如何做呢?
As I said before,the government is doing the right things. And it is doing so independently ofwhether the world economy will grow or slow down in the next several months.
正如之前我说的,政府正在做一件对的事。其这样做与世界经济是否会增长或者在接下来的几个月内下滑无关。
If the governmentis able to convince investors that it will persevere with the policies it hasannounced India may turn out to be the world's star performer in the nextseveral decades. If there is a worldwide slowdown, it may avoid its worstconsequences in the immediate future, and then become the star performer in themedium term.
如果印度政府能够让投资者坚信其制定出的政策不会变,即印度在接下来的几十年里成为世界明星。即使会出现大范围的下滑,在不久的将来也可以避免最严重的后果发生,于是在中期成为世界的明星。
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